In November, national home sales saw a 10.7% decline compared to the same period last year, signaling a stagnation in real estate activity as 2026 approaches. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a total of 33,895 property transactions last month, with a slight 0.6% decrease from October on a seasonally adjusted basis. The average selling price for homes in November stood at $682,219, showing a two percent drop from the previous year.
According to Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist at CREA, some sellers are adjusting prices to facilitate transactions before the end of 2025, following a mid-year surge. Despite this, the Bank of Canada’s recent communication suggesting no further rate cuts could motivate fixed-rate borrowers to engage in the market, hinting at a potential uptick in activity in the coming year.
Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain the key rate at 2.25% is in line with efforts to balance inflation and economic growth, signaling stability after successive cuts since June 2024. Conversely, CREA’s home price index declined by 0.4% from October to November and showed a 3.7% drop year-over-year, reflecting a cautious sentiment among buyers.
Clay Jarvis from NerdWallet Canada expressed skepticism about a quick turnaround, attributing the subdued market to factors beyond interest rates, such as ongoing inflation concerns impacting buyers’ finances. Marco Pedri, a Toronto broker, echoed similar sentiments, anticipating a slow recovery with uncertainties surrounding tariffs and economic conditions.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi highlighted the impact of oversupply on home prices in B.C. and Ontario, suggesting that these markets might experience further pressure. However, he remained optimistic about sales picking up in 2026, driven by pent-up demand in these regions and improved employment prospects.
Despite a slight decrease in new listings and a rise in total properties for sale compared to the previous year, the real estate market remains dynamic, with varied trends across different regions.
