The presence of U.S. military forces near Venezuela and recent attacks on suspected drug-trafficking vessels off its coast have prompted concerns about potential coup or invasion scenarios targeting the South American nation.
The Trump administration has been vocal about its desire to see Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ousted from power. President Trump has labeled Maduro as a drug lord, accused Venezuela of releasing criminals into the U.S., and alleged drug exports to the country.
While discussions of potential land operations in Venezuela have emerged, experts suggest that a direct U.S. military intervention to overthrow the Venezuelan government is unlikely. William LeoGrande, a government professor at American University specializing in Latin America, emphasized the challenges a military action would face.
Despite historical U.S. interventions in Latin America, LeoGrande noted that the U.S. has never invaded a country south of Panama. The recent destruction of nine boats and the U.S. military’s assertion of combatting drug trafficking have drawn criticism for potential violations of international law.
President Trump’s authorization of CIA covert operations in Venezuela and the deployment of military assets in the region have heightened tensions. However, doubts remain about the feasibility of a full-scale invasion due to Venezuela’s significant military capabilities and the potential for armed resistance from various factions within the country.
The risks of a chaotic scenario akin to Libya post-Gadhafi are underscored by Venezuela’s armed groups and the formation of a civilian militia to deter external intervention. Challenges of regime change in Venezuela, including the military’s loyalty to Maduro, further complicate the prospects of a successful U.S.-backed transition of power.
As debates continue within the U.S. administration on the best approach towards Venezuela, the possibility of escalating tensions or pursuing alternative diplomatic solutions remains uncertain. The complex dynamics at play suggest that any decisive action against Maduro’s regime would carry substantial risks and repercussions.
