Lebanon is currently facing a critical situation. Israeli military operations are devastating deserted communities in the southern part of the country. At the same time, Hezbollah, a Shia-dominated militia backed by Iran, initiated another conflict with Israel. President Joseph Aoun’s government is caught between these two opposing forces. The success of navigating through this challenging scenario hinges on persuading Shia women like Diaa Dia Skafi to shift their allegiance from the militants to Aoun’s disarmament initiative.
However, the task of changing deeply rooted loyalties seems daunting. Skafi, a 48-year-old grandmother, expressed frustration with the government’s failure to address issues in the south, as she attended a mass funeral in Kfar Sir village. The coffins, adorned in Hezbollah’s colors, carried the remains of individuals, including fighters, a bank employee, a paramedic, and a woman affiliated with a local scout group, all killed in Israeli assaults.
Hezbollah’s involvement in the broader conflict escalated tensions, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire that excluded Hezbollah from the negotiations. Aoun’s direct talks with Israel marked a significant shift, challenging Lebanon’s traditional stance on diplomatic relations with Israel. Despite some progress, challenges persist, as Israel continues to target Beirut, further complicating the situation.
Hezbollah, a product of Lebanon’s civil war and the Israeli occupation, has evolved into a powerful militia with political influence. Disarming Hezbollah without provoking a civil war remains a longstanding dilemma for Lebanese administrations. Skafi and others argue that Hezbollah’s actions serve their interests, emphasizing the right to defend their land.
While Aoun initially made strides in demilitarizing Hezbollah, progress stalled amid regional tensions. The international community supports Lebanon’s efforts, with the US, UK, and EU providing security assistance. However, internal and external pressures complicate the path to disarmament, with Hezbollah’s defiance and Israel’s occupation adding to the complexity.
As Lebanon approaches a pivotal juncture with UNIFIL’s mission set to end, the focus shifts to Lebanon’s armed forces as the primary border control agency. Municipal leaders express frustration with both Hezbollah and the government, emphasizing the need for an empowered military for defense. Amid uncertain prospects, Hezbollah’s resilience faces scrutiny, with calls for disarming the group gaining momentum.
Hezbollah’s rhetoric remains defiant, but signs of waning support suggest a shifting landscape. The challenge of disarming Hezbollah within a shorter timeframe lies in reshaping perceptions and narratives. The evolving dynamics in Lebanon indicate a potential shift away from entrenched allegiances towards a new direction.
